Jumat, 19 April 2024

Elected Indonesian President 2024: Nationwide Quick Count Version


February 14, 2024 was a special day for the Indonesian people. Millions of voters flocked to their designated polling stations. They cast their vote enthusiastically, based on personal choices and values. The atmosphere varied from city to city, province to province, and island to island. That particular morning, the roads were relatively quiet.

            Out of the 204.8 million voters registered in the permanent voter list (DPT), it was predicted that around 163.84 million voters would go to the polling station (TPS). This number was based on the assumption that the participation rate would not be much different compared to the 2019’s participation figure, which is around 81 percent. Counting of votes certainly cannot be done overnight. Generally, the official results may take more than a month to be released, as the ballots of the 2024 election are still being counted manually.

            However, in this reform and digital era, election results can be known earlier, in the afternoon of the same day, few hours after the voting stations are closed. This convenient “unofficial” result is out way ahead of the official announcement from the General Elections Commission (KPU). The method used is a quick count based on statistical methods – a scientific product which has been proven reliable.

            This method works in a similar way as the process of blood sugar level testing in our body. To find out diabetes mellitus, a blood sample is simply taken via a syringe. Likewise, when we want to see who has the greatest chance of winning the election, samples can be taken. By taking sample using a certain method, and then processing it, it is possible to find out who will be the winner of the election before it is determined by the KPU using a real count.

            Currently, several independent survey institutions predict Prabowo-Gibran to be ahead of their contender. With receiving approximately 58 percent of the votes, they most likely will settle the election in one round voting. On the other hand, Anies-Muhaimin got nearly 25 percent support rate and Ganjar-Mahfud’s rate is around 17 percent. It is interesting to walk through the Prabowo-Gibran’s path from the start which eventually led them to the quick count version of victory.

            Each political party had determined its coalition and presidential candidate relatively early, but on the other hand, Prabowo-Gibran was the last to make their declaration. When Prabowo had not yet chosen his running mate, the contestation of attacking each other through narratives via mainstream media and social media was relatively quiet. It seems that each of them is waiting to see where President Jokowi’s support will lead them. According to several observers, Jokowi is holding the trump card. Whoever Jokowi supports is likely to win.

I           t was different when the Prabowo-Gibran couple made their declaration. Attacks against Jokowi and the Prabowo-Gibran pair began to pour in. Gibran’s process of accompanying Prabowo as vice president is considered to violate ethics, norms, legal flaws and so on. Various accusations have emerged against Jokowi, who is considered to be involved in the candidacy of Gibran, which has been widely circulated in various media.

            Especially when the results of various survey institutions subsequently produced figures that suggested Prabowo-Gibran would win one round. Various protests from outside the winning team increasingly appeared. Starting through narratives, declarations of concern by professors at various universities were provided, as well as demonstrations by students.

            Even with the start of the calm period, when there should be no campaigns and the like, there were lots of broadcasts of attacks on each other via various social media platforms. The most shocking was that during this calm period, a film entitled “Dirty Vote” was uploaded. This film that describes the design of an election fraud plan. It is not surprising that the film has already been watched 7.2 million times since its recent upload.

            It is a horrendous film. And it’s certainly predictable who the film targets. However, the question was whether all of these attacks in various ways affected the people’s willingness to vote for the Prabowo-Gibran pair. Turns out it did not affect the popularity of Prabowo-Gibran. Quite the opposite. The popularity of Prabowo-Gibrant actually skyrocketed. According to the survey, it is estimated that the Prabowo-Gibran pair will win in one round with around 51 percent of the vote. In fact, the results of the quick count were far superior. It may even reach up to 58 percent. Later if the official results appear to be close to this number, it will be a very surprising outcome.

            The question then is: why is that? Let’s try to look at the historical facts of this nation’s journey. When Sukarno-Hatta, in the name of the Indonesian nation, proclaimed the independence of the Indonesian nation, all the people enthusiastically welcomed him. To maintain the independence that has been achieved, anything is given. Even life.

            Under Sukarno-Hatta’s leadership Indonesia rapidly became the most influential country in the world. The 1955 Asia-Africa Conference held in Bandung inspired the independence of various countries in Asia-Africa. The figure of Bung Karno has become a symbol of resistance to the capitalist state. How proud the Indonesian people are to have a world caliber leader. What an honor it is to be an Indonesian citizen.

            Despite the fact that people’s lives are still poor. Life is very difficult, but people seem to understand and forget the shortcomings and suffering they experience. Even when Bung Karno was considered to be starting to deviate from democratic values, Hatta resigned as vice president, many figures who later opposed him were imprisoned, and appointed himself president for life, the people still loved him and were proud to be Indonesian citizens.

            Perhaps historical records would have been different, if Bung Karno had fulfilled the demands of the political elite to immediately disband the PKI in the G30S PKI incident (read Memenuhi Panggilan Tugas by AH Nasution). And there are those who believe that in the G30S PKI incident there were foreign hands playing to overthrow Sukarno considering that Sukarno leaned more to the left and tended to join the Eastern Bloc.

            Orde Baru was born, and then Suharto was appointed President. In the process, the Orde Baru regime also became authoritarian. However, people’s lives have become more prosperous. Even in the era of Suharto’s leadership, Indonesia was highly regarded by the world. Indonesia was one of the initiating countries for the founding of ASEAN. Even the ASEAN secretariat is in Jakarta. The economy is growing rapidly. Various world institutions predict that Indonesia will become an Asian tiger.

            Aviation technology developed with the expertise of world-class aviation figure BJ Habibie. The production of sophisticated aircraft at that time was successfully produced. It can even be exported to various countries. How proud it is to be an Indonesian citizen who is highly regarded by the world. As a result, many people did not really question the authoritarian Orde Baru government system.

            Unfortunately, the 1998 economic recession destroyed the fragile economic foundations. As a result of the government being considered KKN, students and elites moved to reduce it. And Suharto ruled too long, 35 years!. There are also those who believe that there were foreign hands involved in the fall of the Orde Baru. We can see that one of the conditions for IMF assistance to save the Indonesian economy is stopping the IPTN aircraft program.

            Likewise when Jokowi came to power. There are many policies, programs and infrastructure developments that make the Indonesian nation proud. Previously it was unimaginable that various areas of infrastructure could be built. Toll roads in Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi have been realized. A railway line in Sulawesi was also built. Soon, the double track train line across the middle of Jakarta-Surabaya will be connected. Ports, airports and transportation facilities were repaired and built. Fuel prices have become one price throughout the country.

            The Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) was built. Likewise, the subway was also built to overcome traffic jams in Jakarta. In fact, it has been operating for a long time. Lastly, the Jakarta-Bandung fast train which can take around half an hour is already operating.

            The transfer of the capital city from Jakarta to IKN can be executed. In fact, every president in this country has always discussed moving the capital. It started with Sukarno who wanted to move it to Palangkaraya. However, in the Jokowi era, that dream began to be realized. How proud it is to be an Indonesian nation today, to see the progress and justice of development that has been achieved which we have always dreamed of.

            Various policies were taken to bring about the existence of the Indonesian nation. Freeport’s majority shares could be taken over. Down streaming of natural resources, which has always been opposed by various countries which have so far gained a lot from this policy, can be done. The courage to oppose various pressures from developed countries that do not benefit Indonesia is truly worthy of appreciation.

            It is not surprising that according to surveys from various institutions, the level of public satisfaction with government performance has reached above 75 percent. According to many observers, the level of satisfaction and love for Jokowi greatly influences where Jokowi provides support for the presidential candidate. Even though Jokowi himself has not verbally supported any of the presidential candidates, everyone knows that Prabowo-Gibran is the choice for his successor. Of course, the community hopes that the development that has been achieved can be continued by its successors.

            Attacks and even insults directed at Jokowi from various circles, in various forms before the election, apparently did not deter people from continuing to make their choice in line with Jokowi’s endorsement. According to the quick count, Prabowo-Gibran have won the 2024 presidential election.I remember Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s message, “It doesn’t matter whether the cat is black or white, the important thing is that it can catch mice.” And it is proven that China has achieved extraordinary progress! *

*Suprawoto, Secretary general of the Ministry of Communication and Information of the Republic of Indonesia 2014-2017. Regent of Magetan, East Java Province 2018-2023

Notes to this article were also published on Jawa Pos Radar, magetankita.com, Intijatim.id and Seputarjatim.co.id, and lensamagetan.com.


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